Terminology is often confusing and highly variable amongst those that make predictions
in the geoscience community. Here we define some common terms in climate prediction and
how we use them in
Hindcast Ensemble (
Ensemble members are initialized from a simulation (generally a reconstruction from
reanalysis) or an analysis (representing the current state of the atmosphere, land, and
ocean by assimilation of observations) at initialization dates and integrated for some
lead years [Boer et al., 2016].
Perfect Model Experiment (
Ensemble members are initialized from a control simulation
PerfectModelEnsemble.add_control()) at randomly chosen
initialization dates and integrated for some lead years [Griffies and Bryan, 1997].
A “reconstruction” is a model solution that uses
observations in some capacity to approximate historical or current conditions of the
atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and/or land. This could be done via a forced simulation,
such as an OMIP run that uses a dynamical ocean/sea ice core with reanalysis forcing
from atmospheric winds. This could also be a fully data assimilative model, which
assimilates observations into the model solution. For weather, subseasonal, and
seasonal predictions, the terms re-analysis and analysis are the terms typically used,
while reconstruction is more commonly used for decadal predictions.
Uninitialized Ensemble: (
In this framework, an uninitialized ensemble is one that
is generated by perturbing initial conditions only at one point in the historical run.
These are generated via micro (round-off error perturbations) or macro (starting from
completely different restart files) methods. Uninitialized ensembles are used to
approximate the magnitude of internal climate variability and to confidently extract
the forced response (ensemble mean) in the climate system. In
climpred, we use
uninitialized ensembles as a baseline for how important (reoccurring) initializations
are for lending predictability to the system. Some modeling centers (such as NCAR)
provide a dynamical uninitialized ensemble (the CESM Large Ensemble) along with their
initialized prediction system (the CESM Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble). If this
isn’t available, one can approximate the unintiailized response by bootstrapping a
Accuracy: The average degree of correspondence between individual pairs of forecasts
and observations [Jolliffe and Stephenson, 2011, Murphy, 1988]. Examples include Mean Absolute Error
_mae() and Mean Square Error (MSE)
_mse(). See metrics.
Association: The overall strength of the relationship between individual pairs of
forecasts and observations [Jolliffe and Stephenson, 2011]. The primary measure of association
is the Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC), which can be measured using the Pearson
Spearman’s Rank correlation
(Potential) Predictability: This characterizes the “ability to be predicted” rather than the current “capability to predict.” One estimates this by computing a metric (like the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC)) between the prediction ensemble and a member (or collection of members) selected as the verification member(s) (in a perfect-model setup) or the reconstruction that initialized it (in a hindcast setup) [Pegion et al., 2019, Meehl et al., 2013].
(Prediction) Skill: (
This characterizes the current ability of the ensemble
forecasting system to predict the real world. This is derived by computing a metric
between the prediction ensemble and observations, reanalysis, or analysis of the real
world [Pegion et al., 2019, Meehl et al., 2013].
Skill Score: The most generic skill score can be defined as the following Murphy :
where , , and represent the accuracy of the forecast being assessed, the accuracy of a perfect forecast, and the accuracy of the reference forecast (e.g. persistence), respectively [Murphy and Katz, 1985]. Here, represents the improvement in accuracy of the forecasts over the reference forecasts relative to the total possible improvement in accuracy. They are typically designed to take a value of 1 for a perfect forecast and 0 for equivalent to the reference forecast [Jolliffe and Stephenson, 2011].
Hindcast: Retrospective forecasts of the past initialized from a reconstruction integrated forward in time, also called re-forcasts. Depending on the length of time of the integration, external forcings may or may not be included. The longer the integration (e.g. decadal vs. daily), the more important it is to include external forcing [Boer et al., 2016]. Because they represent so-called forecasts over periods that already occurred, their prediction skill can be evaluated.
Prediction: Forecasts initialized from a reconstruction integrated into the future. Depending on the length of time of the integration, external forcings may or may not be included. The longer the integration (e.g. decadal vs. daily), the more important it is to include external forcing [Boer et al., 2016]. Because predictions are made into the future, it is necessary to wait until the forecast occurs before one can quantify the skill of the forecast.
Projection An estimate of the future climate that is dependent on the externally forced climate response, such as anthropogenic greenhouse gases, aerosols, and volcanic eruptions [Meehl et al., 2013].
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